Introductory: The Philippine Insurgencies - New Peoples Army
A introductory to Project Gubat's documentation of the CPP-NPA
This document will serve as a general overview of the current military and political power that the NPA holds as of Nov 2023.
For five decades, the specter of the Cold War has haunted the Philippines through a violent civil conflict that has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives between the contradiction of state and revolution. Across nearly 70 provinces and in all three major islands, the communist rebellion has swept across much of the countryside. In every major mountain range, the NPA operates in full force, waging a protracted guerilla war in a Maoist fashion, a paced conquest of power to surround the bases of state governance with armed force.
In 1969, Jose Maria Sison, a founding member of the Kabataang Makabayan and the Maoist reorganization of the Communist Party of the Philippines (PKP-MLM) founded the New People’s Army as the armed wing of the party. Since then, the NPA had a peak of almost 30,000-40,000 fighters and a multitude of municipalities and villages across the countryside under their control.
The NPA since then has weakened as a result of ideological division, a series of political and internal purges during the 1990s, and constant all-out war launched by the Philippine government after the Marcos dictatorship. Yet the group continues to persist to this day, resisting any attempts to stifle its hold onto the deep brush of the Philippine countryside.
However, the insurgency of the CPP-NPA remains heavily misunderstood, with much public information concerning the topic shrouded in propagandized efforts to purport the 'slow death' of the communist insurgency in the countryside. Thus, it is imperative to develop a critical understanding of the insurgency based on every aspect present to us as observers, both taken from the NPA and the government themselves.
Two main misconceptions will be present when viewing the insurgency. These misconceptions must be cleared before understanding and studying a neutral conflict perspective.
1: The NPA is in slow collapse
2: The insurgency is a weak national threat
1: The NPA is in slow collapse
While it is true that during the previous Duterte and currently ongoing Marcos Jr. administrations, the NPA has seen a sharp decline in areas of general operation and amount of conflict events,
According to the latest government statistics, the NPA only has 2,000 fighters nationwide, while the late Jose Maria Sison, in his 2022 year-end NDF letter, states "tens of thousands" instead.
Yet, based on observed map data, clashes between government and insurgent actors have occurred 400+ times in 2022 and, as of Nov. 23, 360+ times in 2023. This amount of conflict matches that of the number of clashes that occurred in ongoing conflict areas such as in Pakistan's Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan and the Boko Haram/Islamic State - West Africa insurgency in Nigeria and Cameroon, who themselves have an estimated 7k-10k fighters in their membership. However, official counts of the NPA's membership still need to be clarified.
Although this isn't at the level as during the time of President Arroyo or the early period of Duterte's presidency, a noticeable statistic comes from the slow rise of affected areas and the development of new guerilla fronts (areas of insurgent operation) and revival of new guerilla fronts overall, such as in Lanao, for example.
2. The insurgency is a weak threat
Statistics aside, the premise that the NPA insurgency no longer poses a threat is a false dichotomy. When a third-world state such as the Philippines spends upwards of 20 billion pesos in one of if not the largest National Task Force in post-Marcos dictatorship national history over this specific insurgency, and considering the continued presence of NPA and its underground fronts in all regions of the country, it is evident that the conflict continued to become the largest and most significant threat to internal national security.
It has especially gone to a point where false 'weapon cache dig ups' and 'NPA surrenderees' show themselves every year according to the NDF. Furthermore, based on Kasamang Rino’s research, upwards of 12,000 'NPA' and 'allies surrender per year from a 2021 count, it would suffice to say that if the government were somehow valid in its aspect of surrenders, the group would have lost all manpower twice over every tear, which itself is proven not to be true considering that it is still active.
However, it is evident that the NPA has been declining in activity overall, but the fact that it remains a threat is still unavoidable.
Let us be neutral and scientific in our observations, especially with coming events.